[1]连昭阳,仲 佳,徐定德,等.中国山丘区人口老龄化时空演变与影响因素[J].山地学报,2024,(4):519-534.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000842]
　LIAN Zhaoyang,ZHONG Jia,XU Dingde,et al.Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influence Factors of Population Aging in the Hilly Regions of China[J].Mountain Research,2024,(4):519-534.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000842]
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中国山丘区人口老龄化时空演变与影响因素
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2024年第4期
页码:
519-534
栏目:
山区发展
出版日期:
2024-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influence Factors of Population Aging in the Hilly Regions of China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2024)4-519-16
作者:
连昭阳1; 2; 仲 佳3; 徐定德4; 曹 莎5; 刘邵权1*
(1.中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610299; 2.中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院,北京 100049; 3.西华大学 应急管理学院,成都 610039; 4. 四川农业大学 四川省农村发展研究中心,成都 611130; 5. 山东师范大学 地理与环境学院,济南 250358)
Author(s):
LIAN Zhaoyang1; 2;  ZHONG Jia3;  XU Dingde4;  CAO Sha5;  LIU Shaoquan1*
(1. Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610299, China; 2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. School of Emergency Management, Xihua University, Chengdu 610039, China; 4. Sichuan Center for Rural Development Research, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China; 5. College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China)
关键词:
人口老龄化;  时空演化;  地理探测器;  影响因素;  山丘区
Keywords:
population aging;  spatial-temporal evolution;  Geodetector;  influencing factor;  hilly regions of China
分类号:
K901
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000842
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
中国人口老龄化趋势自21世纪以来日益加剧,特别是在地形复杂、经济发展相对滞后的山丘区域,其人口年龄结构的变迁对资源优化配置及社会经济发展构成了深刻影响。既有研究多聚焦于全国或特定区域的老龄化现象及其机制,而对山丘区这一特定地貌类型下的人口老龄化发展轨迹及其驱动因素探究不足。本文基于2010—2020年分县人口普查数据,分析中国山丘区人口老龄化时空演变,利用地理探测器对其影响因素进行探讨。结果表明:(1)研究期内中国山丘区的人口老龄化程度显著加深,表现为人口老龄化率的持续攀升和人口老龄化类型的复杂化; 区域间差异明显,中部山丘区逐渐超越东部,成为老龄化最为严峻的地区; 地形分布上,丘陵县的老龄化程度持续高于平原县与山区县,展现出独特的地域特征。(2)空间布局上,老龄化趋势自东向西蔓延,全局性空间集聚效应随时间推移呈现减弱趋势; 局部区域中,低-低聚集模式显著减少,而高-高聚集模式则表现出更为集中的同时,亦呈现出向外扩散的态势。(3)山丘区的人口老龄化空间分异性是人口构成、社会经济状态及自然环境要素综合影响的结果,主导因素随着时间动态变化,各因素间存在交互效应。(4)山区县和丘陵县的人口老龄化受社会经济因素的直接影响相对较小,更多地受人口结构和自然环境因素的影响。本研究可以为山丘区可持续发展以及人口老龄化政策措施的制定提供数据支持与科学依据。
Abstract:
The trend of population aging in China has been intensifying since the 21st century, expecially in the hilly regions of China with complex topographical conditions and relatively lagging economic development, where the transformation of population age structure had a profound impact on the allocation of resource elements and socio-economic development. Past studies cared about the aging phenomenon and associated mechanisms on a national or specific regional levels, but poorly grasped the development and causes of population aging in hill districts.
Based on the county-level census data in 2010 and 2020, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of population aging in the hilly regions of China and used Geodetector to explore its influencing factors.
During the research period of 2010 to 2020, the degree of population aging in China's hilly regions had significantly deepened, characterized by a continuous rise in the aging rate and the complexification of aging types; there were clear inter-regional differences, with the central hilly areas gradually surpassing the eastern areas to become the most severely aging region; in terms of terrain distribution, the aging degree in hilly counties had remained higher than that in plain and mountainous counties, showing a unique regional characteristic.
In terms of spatial layout, the aging trend had spread from east to west, with the global spatial agglomeration effect showing a weakening trend over time; in local areas, the low- low aggregation pattern had significantly decreased, while the high-high aggregation pattern had become more concentrated and had also shown a tendency to diffuse outward.
The spatial differentiation of population aging in hilly regions was the result of a combination of demographic composition, socio-economic status, and natural environmental factors. The dominant factors changed dynamically over time, and there were interactive effects among these factors.
The population aging in hilly counties and mountainous counties were relatively less directly affected by socio-economic factors and more influenced by demographic structure and natural environmental factors.
This study can provide data support and scientific evidence for sustainable development and policy making for population aging in hilly regions of China.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2024- 05- 06; 改回日期(Accepted date):2024- 08-23
基金项目(Foundation item): 四川省国土空间规划(2019—2035)编制及相关专题研究(Y9D2850)。[Sichuan Province Territorial Space Planning Preparation(2019-2035)and Related Topical Studies(Y9D2850)]
作者简介(Biography): 连昭阳(1998-),女,河南平顶山人,博士研究生,主要研究方向:山区可持续发展。[LIAN Zhaoyang(1998-), female, born in Pingdingshan, Henan province, Ph.D. candidate, research on mountain sustainable development] E-mail: Lianzy@imde.ac.cn
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 刘邵权(1968-),男,博士,研究员,主要研究方向:山区聚落可持续发展。[LIU Shaoquan(1968 -), male, Ph.D., professor, research on sustainable development of mountain settlements] E-mail: liushq@imde.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-07-30