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降雨型滑坡预报中计算前期有效降雨量的一种新方法()

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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

Title:: A New Approach to Calibrate Antecedent Precipitation for Rainfalltriggering Landslide Forecast

作者:: 李长江;麻土华;孙乐玲;朱兴盛;; 1.浙江省国土资源厅信息中心，浙江杭州310007;
2.浙江省国土资源厅地质环境处，浙江杭州310007

Author(s):: LI Changjiang; MA Tuhua; SUN Leling; ZHU Xinsheng; 1.Zhejiang Information Center of Land and Resources, Hangzhou,310007, China;
2.Zhejiang Provincial Department of Land and Mineral Resources,Hangzhou, 310007, China

Keywords:: landslides; forecast; effective antecedent precipitation; fractals

摘要:: 在许多地区,前期降雨条件对滑坡的发生有重大影响,前期有效降雨量是滑坡预报的一个重要参数。基于累积滑坡频度-降雨量分形关系导出了一种新的计算前期有效降雨量的方法。在这个方法中,降雨衰减系数是由给定区域内引发滑坡的累积降雨阀值随观测时段天数变化的标度指数所决定,滑坡前每天降雨对总有效雨量的贡献并非是独立的,前i天降雨的衰减过程与前i-1天的降雨相关联。

Abstract:: To calibrate antecedent precipitation is a key issue for prediction of rainfallinduced landslides many regions. In this study, a method calculating for effective antecedent rainfall is derived from the powerlaw relation of the landslide frequency and the rainfall level. The decay factor of antecedent daily rainfall before the landslide event in this model depends on the scaling exponent defined by the powerlaw correlation and the decay process of daily rainfall within a given period preceding a given day is not independent but is interrelated each other, that is, the impact of rainfall in the prior i days on soil moisture is associated with the precipitation from the prior (i-1) days. One practical significance of this result is that the effective antecedent rainfall can be easily determined using the available landslides and related rainfall measurements for a region.

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备注/Memo:: 收稿日期(Received date)：2010-03-11；改回日期(Accepted) : 2010-10-31。
作者简介（Biography）：李长江(1951-)，重庆人，教授级高级工程师，主要从事矿产地质和灾害地质研究。\[Li Changjiang, born in 1951; engaged mainly in research on land, mineral resources and geological hazards; now serving as a professor with the Zhejiang Information Center of Land and Resources. \]E-mail:zjigmr@mail.Hz.zj.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01