[1]舒和平,孙 爽,马金珠,等.甘肃省南部单沟泥石流灾害风险评估[J].山地学报,2016,(03):337-345.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000137]
　SHU Heping,SUN Shuang,MA Jinzhu,et al.Risk Assessment of Single Debris Flow Gully in South Gansu Province,China[J].Mountain Research,2016,(03):337-345.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000137]
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甘肃省南部单沟泥石流灾害风险评估()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2016年03期
页码:
337-345
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2016-06-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Assessment of Single Debris Flow Gully in South Gansu Province,China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2016)3-337-09
作者:
舒和平; 孙 爽; 马金珠; 刘东飞; 张 鹏
兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
Author(s):
SHU Heping; SUN Shuang; MA Jinzhu; LIU Dongfei; ZHANG Peng
Key Laboratory of Western China's Environment Systems of the Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 73000,China
关键词:
泥石流;  易损度;  灾害风险评估;  风险等级
Keywords:
debris flow;  vulnerability;  hazards risk assessment;  risk level
分类号:
S157.4
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000137
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
随着全球变化研究的深入与防灾减灾各方面问题认识的不断深化,滑坡泥石流灾害风险评估与管理受到了国际社会的越来越广泛的关注。目前,山区泥石流灾害风险评估途径较为单一,主要为定性的分析。因此,选取武都区汉王镇嘴子沟为研究对象,利用单沟危险度及易损度作为基础评价指标,进行不同降雨频率单沟泥石流灾害风险评估。单沟危险度采用Flo-2d数值模型软件进行模拟,并利用GIS技术进行危险区划; 易损度通过遥感解译技术和承灾体经济价值归一化处理相结合,得到各类承灾体易损度。通过危险度与易损度耦合,得到研究区风险等级,并进行风险区划; 同时基于人员损失评估模型和财产损失评估模型,建立风险评估模型,评估结果表明:10 a一遇损失价值1 043.51万元; 20 a一遇损失价值963.36万元; 50 a一遇损失价值1 356.91万元; 100 a一遇损失价值1 322.44万元。通过对嘴子沟泥石流灾害风险评估,获得了该泥石流沟在不同降雨频率下的泥石流灾害损失价值,为地方各级政府在经济建设规划、生态环境管理和防灾减灾等方面提供科学依据和必要的技术支撑。
Abstract:
Along with research advancement of global change and quite understanding of the problems about disaster preparedness and reduction,international community has played more and more attention to landslide and debris flow disaster risk assessment and management. Currently,the major approach of a single debris flow disaster risk assessment is qualitative,which is relatively simple. Therefore,we choose Zuizi Gully at Hanwang Town in Wudu District for research,to conduct disaster risk assessment of a single debris flow at different rainfall frequency by using risk and vulnerability as a basis assessment index. Therefore,Zuizi Gully in Wudou District was selected as research object. The article used hazards and vulnerability as a basis for evaluation,which made a single gully risk assessment come true. Among them,the Flo-2d numerical model was adopted in single gully hazard assessment,combined with GIS technology for dangerous districts; remote sensing technology and the economic value of hazard-affected bodies normalization processing were applied to vulnerability. Hazards and vulnerability were coupled,to obtain the risk in the study area and risk zoning; at the same time,based on loss assessment model and property damage assessment model,the risk assessment model was established,combined with GIS technology for debris flow disaster losses and economic value under different rainfall frequencies. The results show that: once every 10 years loss value 10.435 3 million; once every 20 years loss value 9.633 6 million; once every 50 years loss value 13.569 1 million; once every 100 years loss value 13.224 3 million.The debris flow loss value under different rainfall frequency was got by the debris flow risk assessment of Zuizi gully. This provides scientific basis and necessary technical support for local governments in economic development planning,environmental management and disaster prevention and reduction and so on.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2015-03-04; 改回日期(Accepted):2015-06-28。
基金项目(Foundation item):国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B05)资助。[Supported by national science and technology pillar program(2011BAK12B05).]
作者简介(Biography):舒和平(1989-),男,瑶族,湖南怀化人,博士研究生,主要从事水文过程与泥石流灾害方面的研究。[Shu Heping,male,born in huaihua,Hunan,Ph.D student, majoring in research on hydrological process and debris flow hazards assessment.]E-mail: shuhp13@lzu.edu.cn,Tel:18394029612
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-05-30