[1]杨 军,姚正学*,董耀刚,等.基于Monte-Carlo方法的边坡稳定性评价[J].山地学报,2016,(05):555-561.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000162]
　YANG Jun,YAO Zhengxue,DONG Yaogang,et al.Slope Stability Evaluation Based on Monte-Carlo[J].Mountain Research,2016,(05):555-561.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000162]
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基于Monte-Carlo方法的边坡稳定性评价()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2016年05期
页码:
555-561
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2016-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Slope Stability Evaluation Based on Monte-Carlo
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2016)5-555-07
作者:
杨 军1; 姚正学1; 2*; 董耀刚1; 颉 丽1; 刘兴荣1; 刘 迪1
1.甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,甘肃 兰州 730000;
2.中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川 成都 610041
Author(s):
YANG Jun1;  YAO Zhengxue1; 2; DONG Yaogang1; XIE Li1; LIU Xingrong1; LIU Di1
1.Geological Hazards Prevention Institute, Gansu Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou730000,China;
2.Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Conservancy, Chengdu 610041, China
关键词:
边坡稳定性;  安全系数;  可靠度;  不确定性;  Monte-Carlo方法
Keywords:
slope stability;  safety factor;  uncertainty;  evaluation method on Monte-Carlo
分类号:
P642.22
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000162
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
以兰州九洲开发区某边坡为例,采用Slide软件中的Sensitivity Analysis模块,对边坡进行敏感性分析,得出素填土a的重度和粘聚力是影响稳定性的主要因素,而其他岩土体的物理力学性质对计算结果影响不大; 利用Probabilistic Analysis模块,进行了基于Monte-Carlo方法的安全系数与可靠度计算,评价了该边坡的稳定性,并与确定性计算结果进行了对比。结果表明:尽管安全系数基本一致,但从破坏概率来说,该边坡在自重状态下,坡体处于稳定状态,破坏概率最大为0.4%; 在暴雨工况下,坡体均处于不稳定状态,破坏概率最小为70.3%; 而在地震作用下,东段和南段的部分仍可稳定,破坏概率极小,仅为2.7%,评价结论更加可靠和直观,有利于边坡治理方案的优化设计。
Abstract:
It is great significance for correctly evaluating the slope stability. However, without considering influence of uncertainty factors in calculation process, the evaluation results of the traditional Limit Equilibrium Analysis have some discrepancies from the actual results. As an example on certain slope in Jiuzhou development zone of Lanzhou city, this paper analyzes the sensitivity of safety factor by using the module of Sensitivity Analysis in the Slide software. The result shows that bulk density and cohesive force of the filling a are the main sensitive factor to calculation and analysis. This gives the exploration focus and is beneficial to saving the costs of exploration. Based on Monte Carlo method, the safety factor, reliability and stability of the slope are calculated and evaluated, and compared with the module of Probabilistic Analysis. The study discovered that although the two calculated results are quite close each other, the method based on Monte Carlo gives the probability of failure and gives the following evaluation conclusion at same time: the slope in the condition of gravity is steady, and the maximum probability of failure is 0.4%.Under heavy rain conditions, the slope is instability and the minimum damage probability is 70.3%; but under the action of earthquake, eastern and southern part of the slope can still be stable, the minimum damage probability is only 2.7%. It is obvious that the evaluation conclusion is much more reliable and intuitive. The method is also conducive to optimal design of slope treatment scheme in future.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2015-12-13; 改回日期( Accepted):2016-01-29。
基金项目(Foundation item): 甘肃省科学院应用研究与开发项目(2012JK-06); 甘肃省科学院科技产业化项目(2014CY02)和“西部之光”访问学者(2015年)。[Application Research and Development Project of Gansu Academy of Sciences(NO.2012JK-06); Science and Technology Industrialization Project of Gansu Academy of Sciences(NO.2014CY02)and "Western Light" Visiting Scholar(2015).]
作者简介(Biography):杨军(1975- ),男,甘肃武都人,副研究员,主要从事地质灾害防治研究。[Yang Jun(1975-),male, born in Wudu,Gansu Province, associate research fellow, mainly engaged in geological disaster prevention and control.]
*通信作者(Corresponding Author):姚正学(1970- ),男,甘肃镇原人,高级工程师,主要从事地质灾害防治研究。[Yao Zhengxue(1970-),male, born in Zhenyuan,Gansu province, senior engineer, mainly engaged in geological disaster prevention and control.]
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-09-30