[1]董慧慧,上官冬辉*.基于PLS回归模型的石羊河流域降水空间分布[J].山地学报,2016,(05):591-598.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000166]
　DONG Huihui,SHANGGUAN Donghui.Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Shiyang River Basin Based on PLS Regression Model[J].Mountain Research,2016,(05):591-598.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000166]
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基于PLS回归模型的石羊河流域降水空间分布()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2016年05期
页码:
591-598
栏目:
山地生态与环境
出版日期:
2016-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Shiyang River Basin Based on PLS Regression Model
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2016)5-591-08
作者:
董慧慧1; 2; 上官冬辉1*
1.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所/冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000;
2.中国科学院大学 研究生院,北京 100049
Author(s):
DONG Huihui1; 2; SHANGGUAN Donghui1
1.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric, cold and Arid Regions environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou 730000, China;
2.University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049,China
关键词:
石羊河流域;  DEM;  PLS;  降水量
Keywords:
Shiyang River Basin;  DEM;  PLS;  Precipitation
分类号:
P343,P426.6
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000166
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
利用石羊河流域内国家气象站点和中国内陆河湖水文站点2010—2012年逐日降水观测资料,基于DEM资料提取流域经度、纬度、坡度、坡向、海拔等地形因子,建立降水量与地理地形因子之间的多元偏最小二乘(partial least squares,PLS)回归模型,对石羊河流域2010—2012年在年、季、月尺度上的降水分布特征进行研究,结果显示:1)采用交叉验证法对PLS与反距离加权法(IDW)、样条函数法(SPLINE)、普通克里金插值法(OK)等传统插值方法的精度验证结果比较发现,PLS的平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)值均是最小的。PLS回归模型对降水量的拟合相关系数除2011/2012年冬季分别为0.68和0.66,其余模型的拟合相关系数均在0.81以上,且显著性水平在95%以上 。2)不同的时间及时间尺度,地形因子对降水量的影响是不同的,基本上海拔和坡度对降水量的影响是较大的,且随海拔和坡度的增加降水量增加。3)石羊河流域2010—2012年年降水量从南向北逐渐递减,最大降水量均在南部祁连山区; 季节降水量大小依次为夏季＞秋季＞春季＞冬季,夏季降水量较丰富; 不同年的夏季6/7/8月的降水特征也各不相同,2011年7月和2012年8月降水量相对较丰富。
Abstract:
It combined daily precipitation data of national Meteorological stations Chinese inland rivers and lakes hydrological stations in Shiyang River Basin in 2010—2012,with DEM data to establish a partial least squares(PLS)regression model between precipitation and geography factors including latitude,longitude,height,slope and aspect which extracted from DEM data. Then, the precipitation distribution characteristic in Shiyang River Basin are presented in annual、seasonal and monthly scale,the results showed that:1)using the cross-validation to verify the accuracy of the PLS,IDW,Spline,ordinary kriging interpolation methods with the Mean Absolute Error(MAE)and the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)value, PLS has the lowest values. And except for the fitting correlation coefficient of precipitation in winter is 0.68 and 0.66 in 2011/2012 year respectively, the other models all above 0.81,with significantly more than 95%. 2)Different time and time scale, the influence of terrain factors for precipitation is different. Basically, altitude and slope have larger influence on precipitation, and the influence is positive.3)The annual precipitation of Shiyang River Basin from 2010—2012 decreased from the south to the north area, and the maximum occurred in southern Qilian Mountains; The magnitude of seasonal precipitation sequentially for summer ＞ autumn ＞ spring ＞ winter; The precipitation characteristics in 6/7/8 months of different years are also different, in July 2011 and August 2012, precipitation is relatively richer.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2015-07-23; 改回日期( Accepted):2015-09-02。
基金项目(Foundation item):科技部重大科学研究计划(2013CBA01808),国家自然科学基金项目(41271082,41130638)。[Major Research Program from the Ministry of Science and Technology(2013CBA01808); National Nature Science Foundation of China(41271082; 41130638).]
作者简介(Biography):董慧慧(1991-),女,河南周口人,在读硕士研究生,主要从事山区降水研究。[Dong Huihui, female, born in Zhoukou,Henan,M.Sc candidate,interested in precipitation research in mountain area.] E-mail:donghui@lzb.ac.cn
*通信作者(Corresponding author):上官冬辉(1975-),男,副研究员,主要从事冰川遥感监测方面研究。[Shangguan Donghui(1975-), male, associate professor, mainly engaged in the glacier monitor with remote sensing.] E-mail: dhguan@lzb.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-09-30