[1]赵良军,陈冬花,李 虎*,等.基于二元逻辑回归模型的新疆果子沟滑坡风险区划[J].山地学报,2017,(02):203-211.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000213]
　ZHAO Liangjun,CHEN Donghua,LI Hu,et al.A Method to Assess Landslide Susceptibility by Using Logistic Regression Model for Guozigou Region, Xinjinag[J].Mountain Research,2017,(02):203-211.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000213]
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基于二元逻辑回归模型的新疆果子沟滑坡风险区划()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2017年02期
页码:
203-211
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2017-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Method to Assess Landslide Susceptibility by Using Logistic Regression Model for Guozigou Region, Xinjinag
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2017)2-203-09
作者:
赵良军1; 陈冬花2; 李 虎3*; 刘玉锋3
1. 新疆大学 资源与环境科学学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐830046;
2. 新疆卫星应用中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐830000;
3. 滁州学院,安徽 滁州 239000
Author(s):
ZHAO Liangjun1;  CHEN Donghua2;  LI Hu3;  LIU Yufeng3
1. School of resource and environmental science, Xinjiang University 830046;
2. Satellite applications centre of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830000;
3. Chuzhou College, Anhui, Chuzhou 239000
关键词:
RS; 滑坡灾害; 频率比; Logistic回归模型; 易发性
Keywords:
RS;  landslides;  frequency ratio;  logistic regression models;  susceptibility
分类号:
P694
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000213
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
新疆果子沟区域是我国与中亚地区社会、经济、文化交流的重要通道以及我国石油、天然气等能源资源安全大通道,沿途滑坡灾害频发,威胁人类安全、影响社会、经济发展,但该区域针对滑坡灾害的研究程度较低,需借助滑坡灾害易发性分析与风险等级评估结果指导防灾减灾。本文基于GF-1号卫星影像数据进行滑坡解译,选取地层岩性、断层密度、坡度、坡向、地表高程、植被指数等6个评估因子,探讨运用GIS、RS技术及统计分析模型进行滑坡灾害易发性分析与建模。基于频率比法分析各因子敏感性,利用二元Logistic回归模型进行灾害易发性分析,将研究区滑坡灾害风险分为极低、低、中、高、极高五个等级。将模型计算结果与历史滑坡信息进行比较,并借助ROCCurve检验模型准确性,AUC为0.844,表明模型预测结果具有较高准确性,因此建立的分析模型可以满足新疆果子沟区域滑坡灾害分析与评估应用,研究成果可为研究区重大线型工程保护、边坡加固提供辅助决策支持。
Abstract:
As an entrance to link Central Asia for social, economic and cultural exchanges, Xinjiang Guozigou region secure a route for transportation of oil, natural gas and other energy resources. Unfortunately, active landslide disasters along this route are endangering all aspects of local communities, including human security, local social and economic development. In the case that studies on landslide hazards relevant to this region are rarely done and have little to be achieved, it is necessary to motivate landslide susceptibility analysis and risk assessment over this area for the guidance of disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on satellite image interpretation method, this study collected 6 factors, namely rock, fault density, surface elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, vegetation index from GF-1 images, to integrate into GIS and RS application for construction of statistical analysis model for a scientific evaluation of landslide susceptibility. Based on frequency analysis, it was aimed to evaluate sensitivity of each factor, and then binary logistic regression model was employed to analyze geohazard potentials. According to the referred analysis, landslide risk was categorized into five levels as described as very low, low, medium, high, very high. This risk zoning result was further verified by historical landslide data, and AUC 0.844 was obtained with ROC Curve test model, justifying high accuracy of our prediction. In conclusion, our proposed analysis model can be used to guide landslide control in Guozigou region of Xinjiang and it would be contributed to engineering protection of major liner engineering at similar geo-environment circumstances.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目(Foundation item):国家高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项项目(95-Y40B02-9001-13/15)[Key Project Of National High Resolution Earth Observation System Projects(95-Y40B02-9001-13/15)]
作者简介(Biography):赵良军(1980-),男,湖北京山人,主要研究方向为地理信息、资源环境遥感监测。[Zhao Liangjun(1980-), male, born in Jingshan, Hubei province, research interests include geographic information, resource and environment remote sensing monitoring]E-mail:149189602@qq.com.
*通信作者(Corresponding author): 李虎(1962-),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向为地理信息、遥感。[Li Hu(1962-), male, Ph.D., professor, specialized in GIS, remote sensing]E-mail: lihu2881@aliyun.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-03-30