[1]付 圣,陈丽霞*,黎丰收,等.鄂西南山区小区域大比例尺滑坡灾害易发性及其精度评价[J].山地学报,2017,(04):517-526.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000249]
　FU Sheng,CHEN Lixia*,LI Fengshou,et al.Large Scale Landslides Susceptibility and Accuracy Assessment in Mountainous Counties[J].Mountain Research,2017,(04):517-526.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000249]
点击复制

鄂西南山区小区域大比例尺滑坡灾害易发性及其精度评价()
分享到：

《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2017年04期
页码:
517-526
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2017-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Large Scale Landslides Susceptibility and Accuracy Assessment in Mountainous Counties
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2017)4-517-10
作者:
付 圣1; 陈丽霞1*; 黎丰收1; 连志鹏2;  徐 勇2
1.中国地质大学(武汉)地球物理与空间信息学院,武汉430074;
2.中国地质调查局 武汉地质调查中心,武汉 430205
Author(s):
FU Sheng1; CHEN Lixia1*; LI Fengshou1; LIAN Zhipeng2; XU Yong2
1.China University of Geosciences, Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, Wuhan 430074,China;
2.China Geological Survey, Wuhan Geological Survey Center, Wuhan 430205,China
关键词:
滑坡;  斜坡单元;  证据权法;  易发性评价;  精度分析
Keywords:
landslide;  slope unit;  weights of evidence;  Susceptibility mapping;  Accuracy analysis
分类号:
P642.22
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000249
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
小范围大比例尺地质灾害易发性评价面临时空数据精度或质量不满足理论要求的现状。如何利用有限的数据实现相对可靠的评价结果,是论文研究的主要目的。论文选取湖北省五峰县渔洋关镇为研究区域,考虑水文、地形、岩性分布、历史灾害规模等因素讨论了斜坡单元的划分方法; 将证据权模型分析所得滑坡易发性值转换至各斜坡单元,绘制基于斜坡单元的研究区易发性评价分级图; 分别采用ROC曲线和野外核查手段,评价了易发性结论的成功率和预测率。研究表明,斜坡单元的划分一方面要符合实际地形,另一方面更应体现单元的地质差异性; 栅格计算结论转化为斜坡单元的表达成果、精度分析的注重和野外核查工作的开展是保证分析结果可靠性的有效途径; 湖北省五峰县渔洋关镇易发性评价成功率和预测率分别为84%和74%,野外验核与理论分析结果的一致性较高。
Abstract:
Data accuracy and quality does not satisfy small area-large scale landslide susceptibility mapping in mountainous area.In this paper, it aims to propose a methodology of susceptibility mapping using limited data for landslides in a town named Yuyangguan, located at Wufeng county, west Hubei province, China.Firstly, slope unit map was generated by a method considering hydrology, topography, lithology and historical landslide magnitude.Weights-of-evidence model was applied for grid-based landslide susceptibility mapping, which was later converted to slope unit results using average susceptibility value.Then the success rate and prediction rate was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve and filed check.The results showed that slope unit division should consider not only terrain and hydrology, but also geological differences, such as lithology.Grid-based susceptibility map can be converted to slope unit map for the convenience of risk management practice.The reliability can be measured by not only ROC curves but also field investigation.For Wufeng county, the success rate and prediction rate of landslide susceptibility were 84% and 74%, approving a high agreement with field work.

参考文献/References:

[1] 殷坤龙,朱良峰.滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘, 2001,8(2):279-284 [YIN Kunlong,ZHU Liangfeng,Landslide hazard zonation and application of GIS [J].Earth Science Frontiers,2001,8(2):279-284]
[2] 殷坤龙,张桂荣,陈丽霞,等.滑坡灾害风险分析[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2010:5,240-278 [YIN Kunlong, ZHANG Guirong,CHEN Lixia,et al.Landslide hazard risk evaluation[M].Wuhan: China University of Geosciences Press,2010:5,240-278]
[3] SOETERS R, VAN WESTERN CJ.Slope instability recognition, analysis, and zonation, in A.K.Turner and R.L.Schuster(eds),Landslides: Investigation and Mitigation [M].Washington DC:National Academy Press,1996:247,129-177
[4] VAN WESTERN CJ, CASTELLANOS E, KURIAKOSE SL.Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment:An overview [J].Engineering Geology,2008,102(3-4):112-131
[5] GUZZETTI F, CARRARA A, CARDINALI M, et al.Landslide hazard evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multi-scale study, Central Italy [J].Geomorphology,1999,31(1-4):181-216
[6] 唐亚明.陕北黄土滑坡风险评价及检测预警技术方法研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,2012,88-107[TANG Yaming.Methods on risk assessment and monitor & early-warning for the loess landslide in north of Shannxi[D].Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2012,88-107]
[7] 尚慧,倪万魁,程花.斜坡单元划分在彭阳县地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J].中国水土保持,2011,3:48-50 [SHANG Hui, NI Wankui, CHENG Hua.Application of slope unit division to risk zoning of geological hazards of Pengyang county [J].Soil and Water Conservation in China,2011,3:48-50]
[8] 薛强,张茂省,李林.基于斜坡单元与信息量法结合的宝塔区黄土滑坡易发性评价[J].地质通报,2015,34(11):2108-2115 [XUE Qiang, ZHANG Maosheng, LI Lin.Loess landslide susceptibility evaluation based on slope unit and information value method in Bao-ta District,Yan'an [J].Geological Bulletin of China,2015,34(11):2108-2115]
[9] ROTIGLIANO E, CAPPADONIA C, CONOSCENTI C, et al.Slope units-based flow susceptibility model: using validation tests to select controlling factors [J].Natural Hazards,2012,61(1):143-153
[10] CHUNG CJF, FABBRI AG.Probabilistic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping [J].Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing,1999,65(12):1389-1399
[11] STERLACCHINI S, BALLABIO C, BLAHUT J, et al.Spatial agreement of predicted patterns in landslide susceptibility maps [J].Geomorphology,2011,125(1):51-61
[12] FELL R, COROMINAS J, BONNARD C, et al.Guidelines for landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk zoning for land use planning [J].Engineering Geology,2008,102(3-4):99-111
[13] 王涛,吴树仁,石菊松.国际滑坡风险评估与管理指南研究综述[J].地质通报,2009,28(8):1006-1019 [WANG Tao, WU Shuren, SHI Jusong.A review of international landslide risk assessment and management guidelines [J].Geological Bulletin of China,2009,28(8):1006-1019]
[14] 连志鹏.鄂西南地区五峰县渔洋关镇城区地质灾害分布图[R].武汉地质调查中心.2014 [LIAN Zhipeng.Geological hazard map of Yuyangguan Town, Wufeng County[R].Center of Wuhan geological survey.2014]
[15] 宋腾蛟.金沙江奔子栏水源地库区单体滑坡稳定性智能评估及滑坡灾害区域风险分析[D].长春:吉林大学,2015,90-98[Song Tengjiao.Intelligent evaluation methods of individual landslides stability and regional risk analysis of landslide hazard in Benzilan water source reservoir along the Jinsha river[D].Changchun: Jilin University,2015,90-98]
[16] 刘长春.三峡库区万州城区滑坡灾害风险评价[D].武汉:中国地质大学, 2014, 66-74[Liu Changchun.Landslide risk assessment at Wanzhou urban area in the Three gorges reservoir[D].Wuhan: China University of Geosciences,2014, 66-74]
[17] 靳世雄,陈永波,杨宗佶.基于贡献率法的滑坡易发性评价——以雅安雨城区为例[J].安徽农业科学, 2008, 36(32): 14233-14234[JIN Shixiong, CHEN Yongbo, YANG Zongji.Assessment on the susceptibility of landslide based on the method of contributing rate[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2008, 36(32): 14233-14234]
[18] 崩塌滑坡泥石流地质灾害调查与风险评价技术要求[S].中国地质调查局地质调查技术标准.2016.03 [The technical requirements of collapse landslide and debris flow geological hazard and risk assessment[S].Technical standards of China Geological Survey Bureau of Geological Survey.2016.03]
[19] 范强, 巨能攀, 向喜琼, 等.证据权法在滑坡易发性分区中的应用——以贵州桐梓河流域为例[J].灾害学, 2015, 30(1):124-129[FAN Qiang, JU Nengpan, XIANG Xiqiong, et al.Landslides susceptibility assessment using weights of evidence in the Tongzi watershed, China[J].Journal of Catastrophology, 2015, 30(1):124-129]
[20] 蒋良文, 王士天, 刘汉超, 等.岷江上游干流岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析[J].地质灾害与环境保护, 2002, 13(1):13-17[JIANG Liangwen, WANG Shitian, LIU Hanchao, et al.Research on hypergene geological hazards in the upstream of Min river[J].Journal of Geological hazards and environment preservation, 2002, 13(1):13-17]
[21] 田述军,孔纪名.基于斜坡单元和公路功能的滑坡风险评价[J].山地学报,2013,31(5):580-587 [TIAN Shujun, KONG Jiming.Risk assessment of landslide based on slope unit and highway function[J].Mountain Research,2013,31(5):580-587]
[22] Xie MW, Esaki T, Cai MF.A GIS-based method for locating the critical 3D slip surface in a slope[J].Computers & Geotechnics,2004,31(4):267-277
[23] 冯正一,梁家齐,吴宗江.边坡变迁三维测量与稳定性分析[J].水土保持学报,2006,38(2):117-128 [FENG Zhengyi, LIANG Jiaqi, WU Zongjiang.Three-dimensional laser scanning and stability analysis of slopes[J].Journal of Soil and Water Conservation,2006,38(2):117-128]
[24] 汤国安,杨昕.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006:429-445 [TANG Guoan, YANG Xin.ArcGIS Geographic information system spatial analysis experimental course[M].Beijing:Science Press,2006:429-445]
[25] DAHAL RK, HASEGAWA S, NONOMURA A, et al.Predictive modeling of rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal based on weights-of-evidence[J].Geomorphology,2008,102(3-4):496-510
[26] BONHAM-CARTER GF, AGTERBERG FP, WRIGHT DF.Integration of geological datasets for gold exploration in Nova-Scotia[J].Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing,1988,54(11):1585-1592
[27] BONHAM-CARTER GF, AGTERBERG FP, WRIGHT DF.Weights of evidence modeling: a new approach to mapping mineral potential[C]// Statistical Applications in the Earth Sciences.1989,171-183
[28] AGTERBERG FP.Combining indicator patterns in weights of evidence modeling for resource evaluation[J].Natural Resources Research.1992, 1(1): 39-50
[29] 余建英,何旭宏.数据统计分析与SPSS应用[M].北京:人民邮电出版社,2003:164 [YU Jianying, HE Xuhong.Statistical Analysis and SPSS Application[M].Beijing: Posts and Telecom Press, 2003:164]
[30] NEUHAUSER B, TERHORST B.Landslide susceptibility assessment using weights of evidence applied to a study area at the Jurassic escarpment(SW-Germany)[J].Geomorphology,2007,86(1-2):12-24
[31] HANLEY JA, MCNEIL BJ.The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve[J].Radiology,1982,143(1):29-36

相似文献/References:

[1]蒋志林,朱静,常鸣,等.汶川地震区红椿沟泥石流形成物源量动态演化特征[J].山地学报,2014,(01):81.
　JIANG Zhilin,ZHU Jing,CHANG Ming,et al.Dynamic Evolution Characteristics of Hongchun Gully Source Area of Debris Flow in Wenchuan Earthquake Region[J].Mountain Research,2014,(04):81.
[2]常鸣,唐川,蒋志林,等.强震区都江堰市龙池镇泥石流物源的遥感动态演变[J].山地学报,2014,(01):89.
　CHANG Ming,TANG Chuan,JIANG Zhilin,et al.Dynamic Evolution Process of Sediment Supply for Debris Flow Occurrence in Longchi of Dujiangyan，Wenchuan Earthquake Area[J].Mountain Research,2014,(04):89.
[3]白永健,倪化勇,王运生,等.喜德采书组“8?31”滑坡工程地质特征及运动过程[J].山地学报,2014,(03):327.
　BAI Yongjian,NI Huayong,WANG Yusheng,et al.Engineering Geological Characteristics and Motor Process of Caishu Landslide in Xide of Sichuan，China[J].Mountain Research,2014,(04):327.
[4]王东坡,何思明,葛胜锦,等.“9?07”彝良地震诱发次生山地灾害调查及减灾建议[J].山地学报,2013,(01):101.
　WANG Dongpo,HE Siming,GE Shengjin,et al.Mountain Hazards Induced by the Earthquake of Sep 07，2012 in Yiliang and the Suggestions of Disaster Reduction[J].Mountain Research,2013,(04):101.
[5]崔鹏,陈晓清,张建强,等.“4·20”芦山7.0级地震次生山地灾害活动特征与趋势[J].山地学报,2013,(03):257.
　CUI Peng,CHEN Xiaoqing,ZHANG Jianqiang,et al.Activities and Tendency of Mountain Hazards Induced by the Ms7.0 Lushan Earthquake，April 20，2013[J].Mountain Research,2013,(04):257.
[6]田述军,孔纪名.基于斜坡单元和公路功能的滑坡风险评价[J].山地学报,2013,(05):580.
　TIAN Shujun,KONG Jiming.Risk Assessment of Landslide Based on Slope Unit and Highway Function[J].Mountain Research,2013,(04):580.
[7]王秀丽,唐亚.树木地貌学在地质灾害研究中的应用[J].山地学报,2014,(06):761.
　WANG Xiuli,TANG Ya.Application of Dendrogeomorphology in the Research of Geological Disasters[J].Mountain Research,2014,(04):761.
[8]方丹,胡卓玮,王志恒,等.基于GIS的北川县地震次生滑坡灾害空间预测[J].山地学报,2012,(02):230.
　FANG Dan,HU Zhuowei,WANG Zhiheng.Spatial Prediction of EarthquakeInduced Secondary Landslide Disaster in Beichuan County Based on GIS[J].Mountain Research,2012,(04):230.
[9]常鸣,唐川,李为乐,等.汶川地震区绵远河流域泥石流形成区的崩塌滑坡特征[J].山地学报,2012,(05):561.
　River Basin,ChinaCHANG Ming,TANG Chuan,et al.The Characteristic of Collapse and Landslide by Wenchuan Earthquake in Debris Flow for Mative Region along the Mianyuan[J].Mountain Research,2012,(04):561.
[10]彭永良,郭得令,胡卸文,等.河北省宽城县某滑坡特征与稳定性评价[J].山地学报,2011,(05):591.
　PENG Yongliang,GUO Deling,et al.Characteristics and Stability Analysis of a Landslide in Kuancheng County, Hebei Province[J].Mountain Research,2011,(04):591.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2016-09-14; 改回日期(Accepted date):2017-7-10
基金项目(Foundation item):国家自然科学基金项目(41641012); 中国地质调查局二级项目(D5.7.3)科研专题“武陵山区城镇地质灾害风险评估技术指南”[National Natural Science Foundation of China(41641012); Guideline for Geological Hazards in Mountainous Towns in Wuling Area, D5.7.3,China Geological Survey]
作者简介(Biography):付圣(1993-),男,河北保定人,学士,主要研究方向:地质灾害与工程地质[Fu Sheng(1993-),male,born in Baoding,Hebei province,B.S.,research on geological hazards and engineering geology] E-mail:jason_fusheng@163.com。
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):陈丽霞(1979-),女,湖北汉川人,博士,副教授,主要研究方向:滑坡灾害预测预报、风险分析与管理[Chen Lixia(1979-),female,born in Hanchuan,Hubei province,Ph.D., associate professor,research on landslide hazard prediction and risk management] E-mail:ch_l_x@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-07-30