[1]梁红丽,赵梅珠.云南一次秋季极端暴雨过程的天气学分析[J].山地学报,2024,(4):557-575.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000845]
　LIANG Hongli,ZHAO Meizhu.Synoptic Analysis of an Extreme Autumn Rainstorm Process in Yunnan, China[J].Mountain Research,2024,(4):557-575.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000845]
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云南一次秋季极端暴雨过程的天气学分析
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2024年第4期
页码:
557-575
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2024-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Synoptic Analysis of an Extreme Autumn Rainstorm Process in Yunnan, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2024)4-557-19
作者:
梁红丽; 赵梅珠
(云南省气象台,昆明 650034)
Author(s):
LIANG Hongli; ZHAO Meizhu
(Yunnan Meteorological Station, Kunming 650034, China)
关键词:
极端降雨;  孟加拉湾低压;  锋区和切变活动;  地形作用;  云南
Keywords:
extreme rainfall;  Bay of Bengal Low;  activity within front zone and shear line;  topographic climate effect;  Yunnan
分类号:
P448
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000845
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
全球多个区域的降水模式正逐渐向极端化演变。受东亚和南亚季风交汇影响,加之山地地形复杂,中国云南极端降水分布在时空上具有高度不均匀性,降水演变在不同区域具有差异性。前期云南极端降水的研究多关注极端暴雨发生的大尺度背景及影响系统,对其精细演变特征及其成因差异的探讨则相对不足。本研究利用逐小时区域自动站雨量观测资料、高空间分辨率的ERA-Interim再分析资料,以2015年10月9日云南一次强暴雨过程为研究对象,对其极端降水天气过程特点、系统演变及低层水汽辐合、锋区和切变活动特征、地形作用等进行诊断分析,探讨不同阶段、不同区域极端暴雨演变成因差异。结果表明:(1)2015年10月9日极端暴雨是孟加拉湾低压与冷锋切变相互作用的结果。水汽输送主体是孟加拉湾西南急流,其次是中南半岛偏南气流。切变西段水汽强烈辐合达-3.0×10-7 g?cm-2? hPa-1?s-1,锋区西段经向梯度-21×10-5 K?m-1,东西风交界面稳定维持在99°E～100.5°E,南北风在25°N～26°N。与2000年以来影响系统相似度第2的2015年1月9日暴雨过程相比,此次极端降雨低层水汽输送及辐合强度、暖湿空气及锋区强度均明显偏强,东西风及南北风对峙时间更长。(2)极端暴雨为西北—东南走向的移动型雨带、影响范围广。雨带较长时间维持,是切变线西段冷暖气流强烈辐合、西南急流向滇西南的水汽输送加剧、影响滇南的西南和偏南气流汇合作用增强而形成的,在强降水初期、发展、维持阶段各个因素的作用又有差异。(3)不同阶段、不同区域大暴雨中心降水演变的成因也有很大差异,是低层经纬向风辐合、锋区辐合上升、地形对经纬向气流的强迫抬升、低层水汽辐合等多种因素相互作用的结果。研究结果可为提升云南地区极端降水事件的预报能力和防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。
Abstract:
Precipitation patterns in several regions of the globe are progressively evolving towards extremes. Governed by the convergence of East Asian monsoons and South Asian monsoons, as well as locally modulated by complex mountainous terrain in the Yun-Gui Plateau, extreme precipitation in Yunnan, China, exhibits high spat-temporal heterogeneity, with great differences in precipitation evolution across different regions. In previous research on extreme precipitation in Yunnan, meteorologists had paid more attention to extreme rainstorms in the context of large-scale with associated influence system, hardly explored the fine evolution patterns and their causal differences.
This study employed hourly field observation data from regional automatic meteorological stations and high-resolution ERA-Interim(gridded at 0.125°×0.125° and a temporal resolution of 6 hours interval)reanalysis data to meticulously analyze a historic heavy rainstorm event occurred in Yunnan, China, on October 9, 2015. This event etched in history as the most severe and far-reaching episode of extreme precipitation in Yunnan since records began in 1951. It conducted a diagnostic analysis of the intricate dynamics of extreme precipitation weather process, meteorological system evolution, the convergence of lower tropospheric moisture, the activities within front zones and shear lines, and topographic climate effect, to elucidate the differences in the causes of extreme rainstorm evolution at different stages and in different regions.
(1)The extreme rainstorm on October 9, 2015 was the result of the interaction between Bay of Bengal Low and cold front shear. The main body of water vapor transport was the southwest jet stream of Bay of Bengal, followed by the southerly airflow from Indochina Peninsula. The strong convergence of low-level water vapor in the western part of the cold front shear reached -3.0×10-7 g·cm-2· hPa-1·s-1; the meridional gradient in the western section of the frontal zone was -21×10-5 K·m-1; the interface of east-west wind was stably maintained at 99°E-100.5°E, and the north-south wind was confronted at 25°N-26°N.
Compared with the January 9, 2015 rainstorm process, which was the 2nd most similar influence system since 2000, the intensity of low-level water vapor transport and convergence, the intensity of warm moist air and the frontal zone of this extreme rainfall were significantly stronger, and the east-west winds and north-south winds confronted each other for a longer period of time.
(2)Extreme rainstorms were moving rainy zone with a northwest-southeast orientation and a wide range of impacts. The rain zone was maintained for a longer period of time, which was formed by the strong convergence of cold and warm airflow in the western section of the shear, the intensification of water vapor transport from the southwestern jet to southwestern Yunnan, and the enhancement of the confluence of southwestern and southerly airflow affecting southern Yunnan. The role of each factor in the initial, developmental, and maintenance phases of heavy precipitation varied.
(3)The causes of precipitation evolution in heavy rainstorm centers at different stages and different regions were also very different. It was the result of interaction of many factors, such as the convergence of low-level meridional and zonal winds, the rise of frontal convergence, the forced uplift of meridional and zonal airflow by topography, and the convergence of low-level water vapor.
This study provides a scientific basis for improving the forecasting capability of extreme precipitation events and disaster prevention and mitigation in Yunnan.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2024- 01- 08; 改回日期(Accepted date):2024- 08-15
基金项目(Foundation item): 国家自然科学基金(42365001)。[National Natural Science Foundation of China(42365001)]
作者简介(Biography): 梁红丽(1973-),女,云南曲靖人,硕士,正高级工程师,主要研究方向:灾害性天气机理。[LIANG Hongli(1973-), female, born in Qujing, Yunnan province, M.Sc., professor of engineering, research on the mechanism of disastrous weather] E-mail: lhl1678@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-07-30