[1]吴 雯,吴仕海,阎建忠*,等.中国15条西部跨境铁路通道地缘风险的空间异质性与驱动机制[J].山地学报,2025,(3):362-377.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000898]
　WU Wen,WU Shihai,YAN Jianzhong*,et al.Spatial Heterogeneity and Driving Mechanisms of Geopolitical Risks for 15 Western Cross-Border Railways of China[J].Mountain Research,2025,(3):362-377.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000898]
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中国15条西部跨境铁路通道地缘风险的空间异质性与驱动机制()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2025年第3期
页码:
362-377
栏目:
山区发展
出版日期:
2025-07-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatial Heterogeneity and Driving Mechanisms of Geopolitical Risks for 15 Western Cross-Border Railways of China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2025)3-362-16
作者:
吴 雯1; 吴仕海2; 阎建忠1*; 张镱锂3
(1.西南大学 资源环境学院,重庆400715; 2.曲靖师范学院 地理与旅游学院,云南 曲靖 600511; 3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100010)
Author(s):
WU Wen1;  WU Shihai2;  YAN Jianzhong1*;  ZHANG Yili3
(1. College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; 2. School of Geography and Tourism, Qujing Normal University, Qujing 600511, Yunnan, China; 3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100010, China)
关键词:
跨境铁路通道;  地缘风险;  空间异质性;  驱动机制
Keywords:
cross-border railway corridor;  geopolitical risk;  spatial heterogeneity;  driving mechanism
分类号:
F125.4; K901.4
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000898
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
西部跨境铁路通道是深化中国与周边国家互联互通、践行“一带一路”倡议的战略支点,但中泰、中越、中缅等跨境铁路项目建设频遭波折。既有跨境铁路风险研究多基于单一国家尺度宏观分析或局限于单一通道案例研究,鲜有在栅格尺度上构建多要素耦合的地缘风险综合评估框架,难以支撑精细化风险管控需求。本文以中亚、南亚和东南亚的非岛屿国家为研究对象,从自然-政治-经济三个风险维度,构建地缘风险综合评估指标体系(包含13个风险因子),基于5 km×5 km栅格单元建立精细化的微观风险评估单元,采用综合指数法、GIS空间分析和地理探测器等方法,揭示2022年15条西部跨境铁路通道地缘风险的空间异质性与驱动机制。研究表明:(1)研究区地缘风险呈中部高、南北低的分布特征,很高风险区(>0.52)集中于兴都库什—帕米尔构造带。(2)风险等级呈现显著的空间异质性。低风险通道(高风险栅格占比<20%)包括中哈、中乌、中土、中印、中孟、中越、中泰和中柬通道; 高风险通道(>20%)包括中阿、中巴、中尼和中缅通道。(3)政治稳定性是驱动区域整体风险分异的首要因子(q区域=0.70),在通道尺度上仍保持主导解释力(q通道=0.69)。(4)自然风险对13条通道的空间分异具有普适性影响(单一通道影响因素的平均贡献度q=0.61),其中对中哈、中吉等8条通道的解释力超过60%; 政治风险(q=0.18)对中巴、中泰通道的影响最为突出(q>0.70),经济风险(q=0.05)则仅在中哈、中吉等3条通道表现出显著关联(q<0.20)。建议优先推进地缘风险较低的跨境通道建设,对高风险通道实施“一通道一策”风险防控。研究结果可为推动中国西部跨境铁路通道建设提供参考依据。
Abstract:
The corridors of western cross-border railways serve as strategic pivots for enhancing China's connectivity with neighboring countries and advancing the Belt and Road Initiative(B&R). However, projects such as China-Thailand, China-Vietnam, and China-Myanmar railway face recurrent construction setbacks. Common knowledge on geopolitical risk of cross-border railway mostly was acquired by single-nation macro-analysis or single corridor case studies, limiting precision in risk governance; therefore, it is quite necessary to build a fine-scale geopolitical risk assessment framework integrating multi-dimensional drivers.
In this study, it established a comprehensive geopolitical risk evaluation system via natural-political-economic dimensions(13 risk indicators included)for China's western cross-border railway corridors through nations in Central, South, and Southeast Asia. A refined risk assessment micro-unit was built on a 5 km×5 km grid, and the spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanism of the geopolitical risk of the 15 western cross-border railroad corridors in 2022 were revealed by using the comprehensive index method, GIS spatial analysis and Geo-detectors.
(1)The geopolitical risks for the corridors of China's western cross-border railways exhibited a pattern of high-central, low-peripheral distribution: A north/south decreasing gradient with a central very high-risk cluster(risk index >0.52)concentrated in the Hindu Kush-Pamir tectonic zone.
(2)Significant spatial heterogeneity existed in risk levels: Low-risk corridors(high-risk grid proportion<20%)included China-Kazakhstan, China-Uzbekistan, China-Turkmenistan, China-India, China-Bangladesh, China-Vietnam, China-Thailand, and China-Cambodia routes; high-risk corridors(high-risk grid proportion>20%)comprised China-Afghanistan, China-Pakistan, China-Nepal, and China-Myanmar corridors.
(3)Political stability was the primary driver for regional risk differentiation(qregion=0.70), maintaining dominant explanatory power at corridor scale(qcorridor=0.69).
(4)Natural risks universally influenced spatial variations over 13 corridors(average q=0.61), exceeding 60% explanatory power for 8 corridors including China-Kazakhstan and China-Kyrgyzstan routes. Political risks(q=0.18)most significantly impacted China-Pakistan and China-Thailand corridors(q>0.70), while economic risks(q=0.05)showed limited relevance only to China-Kazakhstan, China-Kyrgyzstan, and China-Pakistan corridors(q<0.20). The study recommends prioritizing low-risk corridor construction and implementing “one corridor, one policy” risk mitigation strategies for high-risk routes.
These findings provide actionable insights for optimizing China's western cross-border railway network development.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2025- 02-10; 改回日期(Accepted date):2025- 06-15
基金项目(Foundation item): 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察项目(2019QZKK0603)。[The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0603)]
作者简介(Biography): 吴雯(1999-),女,重庆人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:地缘安全与区域合作。[WU Wen(1999-), female, Chongqing, M.Sc. candidate, research on geopolitical security and regional cooperation] E-mail: wuwen_24@163.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 阎建忠(1972-),男,博士,研究员,主要研究方向:土地利用/覆被变化以及全球变化与区域响应。[YAN Jianzhong(1972-), male, Ph.D., professor, research on land use and land cover change, global change and regional response] E-mail: yanjzswu@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-05-30