[1]任锦程,苏鹏程*,张乐乐,等.藏东南直白沟冰川泥石流形成机制和风险评估[J].山地学报,2025,(3):423-437.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000902]
　REN Jincheng,SU Pengcheng*,Zhang Lele,et al.Formation Mechanism and Risk Assessment of the Glacial Debris Flow in the Zhibai Gully, Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China[J].Mountain Research,2025,(3):423-437.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000902]
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藏东南直白沟冰川泥石流形成机制和风险评估()

《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2025年第3期
页码:
423-437
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2025-06-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Formation Mechanism and Risk Assessment of the Glacial Debris Flow in the Zhibai Gully, Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2025)3-423-15
作者:
任锦程1; 苏鹏程1*; 张乐乐2; 杨志全3; 汪 洋1; 刘兆旭1
(1. 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610213; 2. 西藏自治区昌都市自然资源局,西藏 昌都 854400; 3. 昆明理工大学,昆明 650093)
Author(s):
REN Jincheng1;  SU Pengcheng1*;  Zhang Lele2;  YANG Zhiquan3;  WANG Yang1;  LIU Zhaoxu1
(1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610213, China; 2. Natural Resources Bureau of Chamdo City, Chamdo 854400, Xizang, China; 3. Faculty of Public Safety and Emergency Management, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China)
关键词:
冰川泥石流;  InSAR;  形成机制;  风险;  直白沟;  藏东南
Keywords:
glacial debris flow;  InSAR;  formation mechanism;  risk;  the Zhibai gully;  southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
分类号:
P642.23
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000902
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
藏东南地区因强烈构造活动、极端地形与极端气候事件的耦合作用,成为全球冰川泥石流高风险区。冰川泥石流灾害具有规模巨大、链式破坏效应显著和防控难度高等特点。本研究以2020年藏东南直白沟特大冰川泥石流(冲出量1.14×106 m3,运距9.78 km,流速>18 m/s)为典型案例,采用野外考察、可见光影像分析、InSAR遥感形变监测以及气象数据的多源数据融合与数值模拟,揭示其触发机制与演化规律,并评估其灾害风险。研究发现:(1)泥石流形成机制。长期气候变暖(1980—2020年升温率0.26 ℃/10a)与多期地震(例如2017年米林地震(Ms6.9))协同作用,导致冰川区形变速率提升至-51 mm/a,松散堆积体规模达1.14×106 m3,为直白沟2020年冰川泥石流启动提供了关键物质基础。(2)潜在灾害风险。在极端气候情景下,根据InSAR和可见光判别,结合数值模拟分析,开展泥石流风险预测和评估,直白沟沟内正源冰川末端一次失稳规模可达2.01×106 m3,为2020年事件的1.8倍,数值模拟表明,模拟最大堆积厚度可达15 m,直接威胁沟口聚落安全,雅鲁藏布江堰塞风险概率提升。本研究成果为区域防灾减灾规划与工程治理方案设计提供了直接参考。
Abstract:
Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been known in the world for heavy high-risk glacial debris flow occurrences due to coupled effects of local intense tectonic activity, precipitous topography, and climate extremes. Glacial debris flow disasters in southeastern plateau are characterized by massive scale, significant cascading destructive effects, and high engineered-prevention challenges.
In this study, it took a catastrophic glacial debris flow mega-event occurring at the Zhibai gully of Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 2020(discharge volume: 1.14×106 m3, runout distance: 9.78 km, peak velocity: >18 m/s)as a typical case. By integrating multi-source data analysis(field survey, optical imagery, InSAR deformation monitoring, and meteorological records)with numerical simulation, it revealed its triggering mechanisms and evolutionary patterns, and assess its disaster risk. The findings include as listed as below.
(1)Formation mechanism of the 2020 Zhibai gully debris flow event. The synergistic effect of long-term climate warming(warming rate: 0.26 ℃/decade, 1980-2020)and multiple seismic events(e.g., the 2017 Milin earthquake, Ms6.9)led to an accelerated deformation at a rate of -51 mm/a in the glacial area, with loose geo-deposits reaching 1.14×106 m3 in volume, providing a critical geo-material supply for the initiation of the glacial debris flow.
(2)Potential disaster risks. Under extreme climatic scenarios, based on InSAR and remote sense interpretation combined with numerical simulation, risk prediction and assessment were conducted for one of the potential initiation zones in the Zhibai gully. The instability scale at the main glacier terminus would reach 2.01×106 m3, 1.8 times that of the 2020 event. Numerical simulations indicate that the maximum deposition thickness could reach 15 m, directly threatening the safety of gully-mouth settlements and increasing the risk probability of the Yarlung Zangbo River damming.
The findings of this study provide direct references for regional disaster prevention and mitigation planning, as well as engineering governance design.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2025- 03- 05; 改回日期(Accepted date):2025- 06-25
基金项目(Foundation item): 国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3002905); 国家自然科学基金(42271092); 中国科学院西部青年学者项目(E2R2180180)。[National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3002905); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42271092); West Young Scholars Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(E2R2180180)]
作者简介(Biography): 任锦程(1998-),女,湖南长沙人,硕士,主要研究方向:冰川泥石流与冰湖溃决型灾害链。[REN Jincheng(1998-), female, born in Changsha, Hunan Province, M.Sc., research on glacier debris flow and disaster chain of glacier lake outburst] E-mail: 1256863468@qq.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 苏鹏程(1981-),男,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向:高速公路、水电基地及城镇地质灾害评估与工程减灾。[SU Pengcheng(1981-), male, Ph.D., associate professor, research on geological hazard assessment and engineering disaster mitigation in highways, hydropower bases and towns] E-mail: supengcheng@imde.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-05-30