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暴雨泥石流冲出距离预测()

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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

作者:: 铁永波;唐川;倪化勇;; 1.成都地质矿产研究所，四川成都 610081；
2.成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室，四川　成都 610059

Author(s):: TIE Yongbo; TANG Chuan; NI Huayong; 1.Chengdu Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources, Chengdu 610081,China;
2.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059,China

Keywords:: debris flow; runout distance; predication model Wenchuan seismic zone

摘要:: 有效确定泥石流可能的危险范围对制定防灾减灾规划具有重要的参考价值。在对2008-09-24北川县境内发生的72处暴雨泥石流调查的基础上,通过对泥石流冲出距离的统计分析,提出了基于地貌学特征的泥石流冲出距离预测模型。模型根据泥石流沟流域面积的大小分类,给出了相应的计算取值参数范围。将该模型应用到汶川县城后山2条泥石流沟进行验证,计算结果表明,用模型预测的泥石流冲出距离比实际冲出距离稍偏大,平均误差值介于4%~11%间,这对泥石流实际冲出距离的预测是可行的。

Abstract:: How to identifying the potential danger zone is an important foundation for postdisaster reconstruction and debris flow mitigation planning in Wenchuan earthquake zone. Based on the survey and runout distance statistics of 72 debris flows which occurred in Beichuan on 24 September 2008, four months after the “5.12” Wenchuan earthquake, this paper promote the debris flow runout distance predication model according to the classification of debris flow catchments area, and give the corresponding parameter values. Finally, apply the model to predication the potential runout distance in two debris flow gully located in Wenchuan country, the result show that the distance value calculated by this method is larger than the real runout distance, the mean value of error was between 4%～11%, this dvalue is reasonable for debris flow runout distance predication.

[1]邵莲芬,彭祖武,王硕楠,等.栾川“7·24”暴雨泥石流启动模式分类[J].山地学报,2013,(03):334.
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[4]王裕宜,詹钱登,田冰,等.长江上游蒋家沟泥石流输沙年际变化与降水旋回特征关系[J].山地学报,2008,(05):590.

备注/Memo:: 收稿日期(Received date)：2010-03-15；改回日期(Accepted) : 2010-10-20。
基金项目（Foundation item）：地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学)开放基金（GZ2009-09）和研究基金。\[Special Research fund and Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection(Chengdu University of Technology).\]
作者简介（Biography）：铁永波（1979－），男，博士，主要从事环境地质和灾害地貌方向研究。\[Tie Yongbo (1979-)，male，P H D，majoring in environmental geology and disastrous landform research\]E-mail:tyongbo@cgscn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01