[1]杨济达,欧晓昆,呙靖雯,等.基于CA-Markov和Geomod模型橡胶林变化预测比较[J].山地学报,2014,(03):267.
 YANG Jida,GUO Jingwen,OU Xiaokun,et al.Comparison of CA-Markov and Geomod Models for Rubber Plantation Prediction[J].Mountain Research,2014,(03):267.
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基于CA-Markov和Geomod模型橡胶林变化预测比较()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2014年03期
页码:
267
栏目:
山地研究
出版日期:
2014-03-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Comparison of CA-Markov and Geomod Models for Rubber Plantation Prediction
作者:
杨济达欧晓昆呙靖雯张志明
云南大学生态学与地植物学研究所,云南,昆明 650091
Author(s):
YANG JidaGUO JingwenOU XiaokunZHANG Zhiming(276)
Institute of Ecology and Geobotany,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China
关键词:
橡胶林变化预测CA-Markov模型Geomod模型
Keywords:
rubber plantation prediction CA-Markov model Geomod model
分类号:
S794.1
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
近年来,学者们发展了一系列的模型对土地利用/覆盖变化进行预测模拟研究,CA-Markov和Geomod模型是其中应用较为广泛的两种模型。分别利用CA-Markov和Geomod模型模拟云南景洪地区2010年橡胶林LUCC状况,旨在通过两种模型的模拟对比,探讨两种模型的差异和优劣,选取一种更加合理、可靠的模型来对该地区橡胶林变化趋势进行预测分析。利用1995年、2003年、2010年3个时期的影像进行解译,将1995年和2003年的解译结果利用两种模型预测2010年景洪地区内橡胶林分布格局,并且运用2010年ALOS影像解译的橡胶林空间分布结果图来检验模型的预测模拟结果。研究发现:1.两个模型模拟结果人工目视检验差异明显,Geomod模型的预测模拟结果与影像分类的结果更加接近;2.两个模型ROC分析精度较高,都大于0.65,且AUC值基本一致;3.利用模糊矩阵精度检验结果表明,Geomod模型从栅格象元的数量、匹配的准确性以及总体精度高于CA-Markov模型的预测模拟结果。
Abstract:
In recent years,researchers have developed a series of models to predict the land use / cover change where the Geomod and CA-Markov model is one of the two models which is widely used. In the paper CA-Markov and Geomod models are used to simulate the LUCC of rubber plantation in 2010,Jinghong of Yunnan,China comparing the results of simulation of two models,aims to explore the differences and pros/cons of two models,and select the better one which is more reasonable and reliable to analyze and predict the LUCC situation in the region. Using the interpreted results of image of TM in 1995 and 2003 to simulate the distribution of rubber in the region,2010 and validate the performance of two models by using the interpreted results of image of ALOS in 2010.The results showed that:1.the differences are significance in visual inspection between the two models,result of simulation of Geomod matches the true map better than another;2.both of two models which AUC value >0.65 have high precision which is basically the same in ROC analyze;3.Geomod model performances better than CA-Markov model on the number of pixels,matching accuracy,overall accuracy in the validation of fuzzy matrix.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2013-12-01;修回日期(Accepted):2013-12-09。
基金项目(Foundation item):国家自然科学基金资助项目(41361046)资助。[Supported by the Chinese National Natural Science Fund Project (41361046).]
作者简介(Biography):杨济达(1988 -),男,回,云南丽江人,硕士研究生,主要从事景观动态与植被变化研究。[Yang Jida (1988-), male, born in Yunnan Province, master, main research field: Landscape and vegetation change. ] E-mail:326283005@qq.com *
通信作者(Corresponding author): E-mail:zhiming_zhang76@hotmail.com
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01