[1]丁明涛,周 鹏,张永旺,等.岷江上游干旱河谷边界波动的定量判定及其演化特征[J].山地学报,2017,(02):170-178.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000209]
　DING Mingtao,ZHOU Peng,ZHANG Yongwang,et al.Quantitative Determination of Boundary Fluctuation in Arid Valley of the Upper Min River and Its Evolution Feature[J].Mountain Research,2017,(02):170-178.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000209]
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岷江上游干旱河谷边界波动的定量判定及其演化特征()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2017年02期
页码:
170-178
栏目:
山地生态环境
出版日期:
2017-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantitative Determination of Boundary Fluctuation in Arid Valley of the Upper Min River and Its Evolution Feature
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2017)2-170-09
作者:
丁明涛1; 周 鹏2; 张永旺1; 吕夏婷1
1. 西南科技大学 环境与资源学院,四川 绵阳 621010;
2. 重庆市彭水苗族土家族自治县水务局,重庆 彭水 409600
Author(s):
DING Mingtao1; ZHOU Peng2; ZHANG Yongwang1; LV Xiating1
1.School of Environment and Sources,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,Sichuan;
2.Water Affairs Bureau of the Pengshui Miao and Tujia Autonomous County,Pengshui 409600,Chongqing
关键词:
干旱河谷; 边界波动; 演化特征; 风险管理; 岷江上游
Keywords:
arid valley;  boundary fluctuation;  evolution pattern;  risk management;  the upper reaches of Min River
分类号:
P208; P285
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000209
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
在山区人口迅速增加和社会经济高速发展的进程中,干旱河谷作为山区生态系统的重要组成部分之一,承载了严重的被干扰和过度利用。在RS与GIS技术的支持下,本研究选择岷江上游干旱河谷作为研究对象,应用马尔科夫预测法和土地利用动态变化空间分析测算模型,开展干旱河谷边界波动的定量判定及其演化特征研究。研究结果表明:岷江上游干旱河谷区面积与上边界在逐年增加,上边界平均每年沿垂直方向抬升约5m,在未来较长时间内,干旱河谷面积的增长趋势将会越来越强;其中,1970至2010年干旱河谷转化速率(TRL70-2010)呈现不断上升趋势,分别为TRL70=1.44%,TRL80=0.95%,TRL90=2.32%,TRL2000=2.45%,TRL2010=3.59%;1990至2000年期间干旱河谷新增速率(IRL90-2000)最大,属于高速扩展期,在1970至1980年期间新增速率IRL70-80最小;1990至2000年期间干旱河谷"敏感性"最高,其年变化速率(CCL90-2000)为13.01%,其次为CCL2000-2010=6.51%,其余时期年均变化速率皆在4%左右。本研究结果可为我国西部灾害多发区聚落合理规划、灾害风险管理、人口合理分布与再调整提供重要的科学依据。
Abstract:
With rapid population growth and socio-economic development in mountainous regions of western China,arid valleys are acting as an important part in support of mountain ecosystems and suffering serious engineered interference and over-exploitation. With the help of RS and GIS technology,this research took arid valleys in the upper reaches of Min River as a case study. It applied the Markov prediction method and the model of dynamic change of land use space analysis calculation to perform a quantitatively investigation on the boundary fluctuation of arid valleys in the upper reaches of Min River and its evolutionary features. Results confirmed that: The area of arid valleys in the upper reaches of Min River and its upper border had been growing for years,On an annual average,the upper boundary kept uplifting about 5 m per year in the vertical direction,and the growth trend in the arid valley areas would be getting stronger in the long run; During 1970 to 2010,the expansion rate of arid valley(TRL70-2010)presented a rising trend,with TRL70=1.44%, TRL80=0.95%, TRL90=2.32%, TRL2000=2.45%, TRL2010=3.59%. separately; And arid valleys had been highly developing from 1990 to 2000 with a unprecedented maximum rate(IRL90-2000),which was regarded as high-speed expansion period,whereas for the period of 1970 to 1980,its rate IRL70-80 dropped to the minimum; As for the period of 1990 to 2000,arid valley had the highest“sensitivity”,with a annual rate of change(CCL90-2000)13.01%,followed by CCL2000-2010=6.51%,and in the remaining period,a average annual rate of change was about 4%. This research achievement can provide important scientific basis for rational site planning for settlements,disaster risk management,proper population distribution and readjustment in some areas of western China with a high susceptibility in geohazards.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
基金项目(Foundation item):四川省青年科技基金项目(2017JQ0051); 国家自然科学基金项目(41371185); 教育部人文社会科学研究专项任务项目(工程科技人才培养研究)(15JDGC019)。 [Sichuan Youth Science & Technology Foundation(2017JQ0051); National Natural Science Foundation of China(41371185); Social Science Research Foundation of Ministry of Education(Engineering and technology training research)(15JDGC019).]
作者简介(Biography):丁明涛(1981-), 男(汉族), 山东日照人, 博士, 教授, 主要从事地质灾害风险控制与聚落减灾方面的教学与科研工作。[ Ding Mingtao(1981-), male(Han), born in Rizhao of Shandong province, Ph.D., Professor, mainly engaged in teaching and research work of geological hazard risk control and settlement planning.] E-mail: mingtaoding@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-03-30