[1]陈 露,唐家良,王艳强*,等.川中丘陵区极端气候演变及其对紫色土坡耕地作物生产的影响[J].山地学报,2025,(2):167-184.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000884]
　CHEN Lu,TANG Jialiang,WANG Yanqiang*,et al.Extreme Weather Trajectory over Recent Decades and Associated Impacts on Crop Production in Purple Soil Sloping Farmland in the Hilly Areas of Central Sichuan, China[J].Mountain Research,2025,(2):167-184.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000884]
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川中丘陵区极端气候演变及其对紫色土坡耕地作物生产的影响()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2025年第2期
页码:
167-184
栏目:
山地环境
出版日期:
2025-06-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Extreme Weather Trajectory over Recent Decades and Associated Impacts on Crop Production in Purple Soil Sloping Farmland in the Hilly Areas of Central Sichuan, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2025)2-167-18
作者:
陈 露1; 2; 唐家良1; 王艳强1*; 高美荣1; 崔俊芳1; 朱 波1
(1. 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室,成都 610213; 2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049)
Author(s):
CHEN Lu1; 2;  TANG Jialiang1;  WANG Yanqiang1*;  GAO Meirong1;  CUI Junfang1;  ZHU Bo1
(1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Surface Processes and Ecological Regulation, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610213, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
关键词:
极端气候;  作物生产;  坡耕地;  紫色土;  广义加性模型
Keywords:
extreme weather;  crop production;  sloping farmland;  purple soil;  Generalized Additive Models
分类号:
S166
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000884
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
全球变暖背景下极端气候事件频发,对川中丘陵区农业可持续生产构成严峻威胁。前期研究多基于低空间分辨率的NDVI数据表征植被动态,难以精准解析极端气候事件对作物生长的微观影响机制。本研究以气候敏感型——川中丘陵区紫色土坡耕地为研究对象,基于区内定位试验站的气象数据序列(1960—2022年)及主要作物冬小麦/夏玉米生产数据(2005—2022年),采用ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)构建的极端气候指数体系,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验及广义加性模型(Generalized Additive Models, GAMs),揭示20个极端气候指数演变特征及其对作物生产力的相对影响。结果表明:(1)川中丘陵区气温呈现显著增暖趋势。1960—2022年平均气温整体呈先下降后上升的趋势,其中1990年之后呈上升趋势,1990—2022年气温增暖率为0.20 ℃?(10a)-1。1960—2022年极端气温暖指数呈上升趋势,冷指数基本呈下降趋势,其中热天日数、霜冻日数、日平均温差均呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01),表明极端高低温事件发生频率与强度同步加剧。(2)年平均降水量变化趋势不显著,波动较大(P>0.05)。连续无雨日数呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01),而其余极端降水频率类指数及降水强度类指数基本呈不显著的上升趋势,表明区域干旱化风险整体加剧。(3)作物响应存在明显种间差异。冬小麦及夏玉米生产均受连续无雨日数的显著影响,但夏玉米对极端气候指数的响应更为敏感,其中最高气温极大值、最低气温极大值及日平均温差是制约夏玉米产量的主导气温因子(P<0.05); 降水频率指数、年总降水量及湿润天数则是主要极端降水影响因子(P<0.05)。(4)Hurst指数预测显示,未来极端气候事件呈现持久性特征,高温-干旱复合型灾害将成为威胁作物生产的主要风险。本研究提出的作物-气候响应机制,可为丘陵旱作农业区优化种植制度、制定气候适应性管理方案提供定量化决策支持,对保障粮食安全具有重要实践价值。
Abstract:
Frequent extreme climate events over recent decades under global warming pose a severe threat to sustainable agricultural production in Central Sichuan of China. Previous studies predominantly utilized low-spatial-resolution NDVI data to characterize vegetation dynamics, making it difficult to precisely decipher the microscale impact mechanisms of extreme climate events on crop growth.
In this study, it investigated a representative agricultural system in climate-sensitive sloping farmland of purple soil in the hilly areas of Central Sichuan, China, utilizing meteorological data series(1960-2022)and production data of major crops(winter wheat/summer maize, 2005-2022)from a local research station-the Yanting Purple Soil Agro-Ecological Experimental Station of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It employed the extreme climate index system constructed by ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices), along with Mann-Kendall trend tests and Generalized Additive Models(GAM)to reveal evolution patterns of 20 extreme climate indices and their relative impacts on crop productivity.
(1)The Central Sichuan hilly areas had shaped into a significant warming trend for recent decades. The average temperature from 1960 to 2022 had an overall pattern of initial decrease followed by increase, with a rising trend after 1990 with a warming rate of 0.20 ℃·(10a)-1 during 1990-2022. From 1960 to 2022, extreme warm temperature indices had an upward trend while cold indices generally declined, marked by extremely significant increases in hot days, frost days, and diurnal temperature range(P<0.01), indicating a synchronized intensification in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme high and low temperature events.
(2)Annual average precipitation demonstrated no observable trend but considerable fluctuation(P>0.05). Consecutive rainless days exhibited a highly significant increasing trend(P<0.01), while other extreme precipitation frequency/intensity indices generally showed non-significant upward trends, suggesting an overall intensification of regional drought risk.
(3)There were distinct interspecies differences in crop responses to climate changes. While both winter wheat and summer maize production were significantly affected by consecutive dry days, summer maize exhibited greater sensitivity to extreme climate indices. Extreme temperature factors(maximum/minimum temperature extremes, diurnal temperature range)were dominant temperature factors constraining summer maize yield(P<0.05), while precipitation frequency indicators, annual total precipitation, and heavy precipitation days constituted primary drivers of precipitation impacts(P<0.05).
(4)According to Hurst exponent predictions, it indicated there would be persistent occurrences of extreme climate events in future, with high-temperature-drought compound disasters emerging as the main risk threat to crop production.
The crop-climate response framework proposed in this study provides quantitative decision-support for optimizing planting systems and developing climate-adaptive management schemes in hilly dryland agricultural areas, offering appreciable practical value for ensuring food security.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2024- 09-30; 改回日期(Accepted date): 2025- 04-16
基金项目(Foundation item): 国家重点研发计划(2023YFF0806002); 国家自然科学基金(42371039)。[National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0806002); National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371039)]
作者简介(Biography): 陈露(1996-),女,甘肃酒泉人,博士研究生,主要研究方向:生态水文观测与模拟。 [CHEN Lu(1996-), female, born in Jiuquan, Gansu Province, Ph.D. candidate, research on observation and simulation of ecohydrology] E-mail: chenlu@imde.ac.cn
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 王艳强(1980-),男,工程师,重庆酉阳人,主要研究方向:作物形态生理观测。[WANG Yanqiang(1980-), male, engineer, research on crop morphophysiology]E-mail: yanqiang_wang@imde.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-03-30