[1]姜佳佳,段克勤*,王 琼,等.2000—2100年喜马拉雅山冰川变化及其水文效应评估[J].山地学报,2025,(2):220-234.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000888]
　JIANG Jiajia,DUAN Keqin*,WANG Qiong,et al.Glacier Changes and Resulting Hydrological Consequences in the Himalayas(2000-2100)[J].Mountain Research,2025,(2):220-234.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000888]
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2000—2100年喜马拉雅山冰川变化及其水文效应评估()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2025年第2期
页码:
220-234
栏目:
山地环境
出版日期:
2025-06-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Glacier Changes and Resulting Hydrological Consequences in the Himalayas(2000-2100)
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2025)2-220-15
作者:
姜佳佳; 段克勤*; 王 琼; 何锦屏; 豆明玉; 李朝纲
(陕西师范大学 地理科学与旅游学院,西安 710119)
Author(s):
JIANG Jiajia;  DUAN Keqin*;  WANG Qiong;  HE Jinping;  DOU Mingyu;  LI Chaogang
(School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China)
关键词:
冰川变化;  水文效应;  CMIP6;  喜马拉雅山
Keywords:
glacier changes;  hydrological consequence;  CMIP6;  the Himalayas
分类号:
K903
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000888
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
喜马拉雅山拥有全球中低纬度带规模最大的山地冰川群,其冰川补给直接影响南亚水系水资源安全。全球变暖背景下,喜马拉雅山冰川响应存在空间分异特征,但21世纪以来冰川动态演化路径及其水文效应仍存在整体上的认知空白。本研究利用偏差校正的CMIP6气候数据集与改进型Global PyGEM-OGGM模型,综合考虑冰川动力学过程与表碛热力学效应,分析预测2000—2100年SSP2- 4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下喜马拉雅山冰川系统多参数响应。结果表明:(1)经偏差校正后,CMIP6多模式集合数据在喜马拉雅山的适用性显著提升(1961—2014年),气温(偏差:-0.02 ℃,均方根误差:0.41 ℃)和降水(偏差:-22.31 mm,均方根误差:136.55 mm)的模拟误差显著降低,同时基于多源卫星融合数据验证的Global PyGEM-OGGM冰川数据集(2000—2019年)在冰川质量变化时空模拟中表现优异(相关系数分别为0.59、0.99,均方根误差为0.97 Gt、0.002 Gt),证实二者可为区域气候变化与冰川物质平衡研究提供可靠数据支撑。(2)在SSP2- 4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下,喜马拉雅山区域增温速率分别为0.28 ℃/10a和0.57 ℃/10a,至21世纪末气温较世纪初将累计上升2.45 ℃和5.12 ℃,驱动冰川面积缩减70%和85%,冰川呈现加速亏损态势。(3)冰川消融空间格局发生阶段性逆转。2000—2020年东喜马拉雅山冰川物质亏损显著,而2020年以后西喜马拉雅山在0.29 ℃/10a(SSP2- 4.5)和0.61 ℃/10a(SSP5-8.5)的增温驱动下,消融速率超越东段。(4)跨境流域径流演变呈现显著异质性。冰川持续消融将导致印度河、恒河和雅鲁藏布江流域冰川融水径流呈现先增后减的趋势。印度河流域峰值出现在2053 a±12 a(SSP2- 4.5)和2054 a±8 a(SSP5-8.5),而冰川规模较小的恒河和雅鲁藏布江流域则分别提前至2033 a±7 a/2046 a±7 a和2031 a±6 a/2044 a±8 a。至世纪末,雅鲁藏布江流域冰川径流量将衰减至基准期(2000—2009年)的40%。本研究提出的21世纪喜马拉雅山冰川变化的趋势,可为跨境水资源协同管理和区域气候适应策略的制定提供决策基准。
Abstract:
The Himalayas have the largest mountain glacier concentration in the mid-low latitudes, where glacial meltwater predominately governs the water resource security of South Asia. Under global warming, the Himalayan glaciers exhibit spatially heterogeneous responses, yet their glaciological trajectories and associated hydrological consequences for the 21st century remained insufficiently quantified.
In this study, it integrated bias-corrected CMIP6 climate dataset with an improved Global PyGEM-OGGM model, incorporating glacier dynamics and supraglacial debris thermodynamic effects, to project multi-parameter responses(temperature, precipitation, glacier area, mass balance and runoff)of the Himalayan cryosphere under the scenarios of SSP2- 4.5/SSP5-8.5 from 2000 to 2100.
(1)The delta bias-corrected CMIP6 multi-model ensemble data demonstrated significant improvements in climate simulation accuracy over the Himalayas during 1961-2014, achieving marked reductions in simulation errors for temperature(bias: -0.02 ℃, RMSE: 0.41 ℃)and precipitation(bias: -22.31 mm, RMSE: 136.55 mm). Concurrently, the Global PyGEM-OGGM data, validated using multi-source satellite fusion data(2000-2019), exhibited exceptional performance in spatiotemporal simulations of glacier mass changes, with correlation coefficients of 0.59 and 0.99 and RMSE of 0.97 Gt and 0.002 Gt, respectively. These results collectively confirm that both datasets provide robust data support for regional climate change studies and glacier evolution investigations.
(2)Regional warming rates of 0.28 ℃/10a(SSP2- 4.5)and 0.57 ℃/10a(SSP5-8.5)drive cumulative temperature rises of 2.45 ℃/5.12 ℃ by the end of the 21st century relative to the early 21st century, triggering glacier area losses of 70%/85% and accelerating mass balance deficits.
(3)A phased reversal in ablation patterns emerges. In eastern Himalayas glacier mass loss dominates during 2000-2020, while post-2020, western Himalayas is expected to surpass the eastern counterparts under intensified warming(0.29 ℃/10a(SSP2- 4.5)and 0.61 ℃/10a(SSP5-8.5).
(4)Transboundary basins exhibit heterogeneous runoff responses, all following a trajectory of initial increase followed by decrease. Peak meltwater discharge in the Indus River basin occurs at 2053 a±12 a(SSP2- 4.5)and 2054 a±8 a(SSP5-8.5), whereas smaller glaciers in the Ganges River and the Yarlung Zangbo River basins show earlier peaks: 2033 a±7 a(SSP2- 4.5)/2046 a±7 a(SSP5-8.5)and 2031 a±6 a(SSP2- 4.5)/2044 a±8 a(SSP5-8.5), respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the Yarlung Zangbo River's glacial runoff will decline to 40% of the baseline period(2000-2009).
This study establishes a pattern of glacier change in the Himalayas in the 21st century, which can provide a decision-making benchmark for the collaborative management of cross-border water resources and the formulation of regional climate adaptation strategies.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2024-11-10; 改回日期(Accepted date):2025- 03-11
基金项目(Foundation item): 国家自然科学基金(42371137)。[National Natural Science Foundation of China(42371137)]
作者简介(Biography): 姜佳佳(2001-),女,陕西榆林人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:气候变化与冰冻圈可持续发展。[JIANG Jiajia(2001-), female, born in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, M.Sc. candidate, research on climate change and sustainable development of the cryosphere] E-mail:jiangjj@snnu.edu.cn
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 段克勤(1970-),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向:全球变化。[DUAN Keqin(1970-), male, Ph.D., professor, research on global change] E-mail:kqduan@snnu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-03-30