[1]张凯玥,等.1950—2015年青藏高原山洪灾害分布及演变特征[J].山地学报,2025,(5):697-708.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000923]
　ZHANG Kaiyue,WANG Zhonggen*,TANG Yin*.Spatial Distribution and Evolution of Historical Flash Floods on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1950 to 2015[J].Mountain Research,2025,(5):697-708.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000923]
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1950—2015年青藏高原山洪灾害分布及演变特征()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2025年第5期
页码:
697-708
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2025-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Spatial Distribution and Evolution of Historical Flash Floods on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1950 to 2015
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2025)5-697-12
作者:
张凯玥1;  3; 王中根2;  3*; 唐 寅1*
(1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101; 2. 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京 100085; 3. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049)
Author(s):
ZHANG Kaiyue1; 3;  WANG Zhonggen2; 3*;  TANG Yin1*
(1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 2. National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China; 3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
关键词:
山洪灾害;  时空演变;  热点分析;  空间自相关;  标准差椭圆;  青藏高原
Keywords:
flash flood;  spatial-temporal evolution;  hotspot analysis;  spatial autocorrelation;  standard deviation ellipse;  the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
分类号:
K903
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000923
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
青藏高原地区山洪灾害风险持续上升,但缺乏基于整体地貌单元的、长序列、高分辨率数据的山洪研究,难以满足小尺度风险评估与工程规划的需求。本文基于1950—2015年青藏高原地区山洪灾害记录,以25.52 km × 25.52 km网格为单元,综合运用热点分析、空间自相关与标准差椭圆方法,系统解析青藏高原地区山洪灾害的空间格局与演化特征。结果表明:(1)青藏高原地区山洪灾害呈显著空间分异与聚集分布,藏东南、青海东部—甘肃西部及横断山区为三大高发区,其中藏东南“一江两河”(雅鲁藏布江、拉萨河和年楚河)流域聚集度最高; 阿里南部、仲巴—申扎—安多一带、石渠—若尔盖、同德—刚察以及祁连山北麓等低发区存在潜在风险。(2)1950—2015年灾害频次在年代际尺度上呈指数增长(y=89.85e0.44x,R2=0.99),空间扩展由横断山区向“一江两河”及河湟谷地推进,扩展的方向性显著增强,主要分布方向由东北—西南转向东—西; 灾害重心持续西移,移动路径与主要交通干线走向基本一致。结论可为青藏高原山洪监测预警、重大工程布设与政策制定提供科学依据。
Abstract:
The risk of flash floods on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau continues to increase, but the demands of small-scale risk assessment for flash floods on the Plateau and associated engineering plans have not been met because there is a lack of flash flood research based on integrated geomorphological units with long-term, high-resolution data.
Based on flash flood records across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1950 to 2015, this study characterized the spatial patterns of flash floods by integrating optimized hotspot analysis and spatial autocorrelation methods. Both methods were applied using the 25.52 km × 25.52 km grid scale identified by optimized hotspot analysis. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal evolution of the flash floods was clarified via the standard deviational ellipse method across decades. It has conclusions as list below.
(1)The flash floods exhibited significant spatial differentiation and clustering. Three high-incidence zones were southeastern Xizang, eastern Qinghai Province-western Gansu Province and the Hengduan Mountains, with the highest density in the One River, Two Tributaries(the Yarlung Zangbo River, and two tributaries: the Lhasa River and the Nianchu River). Potential-risk areas within low-incidence regions included southern Ali region, the Zhongba-Shenzha-Amdo corridor, Shiqu-Zoige area, Tongde-Gangcha area and the northern piedmont of the Qilian Mountains.
(2)From 1950 to 2015 flash flood frequency grew exponentially on a decadel scale(y=89.85e0.44x, R2=0.99), expanding from the Hengduan Mountains toward the One River, Two Tributaries and the Hehuang Valley; the distribution ellipse rotated from NE-SW to E-W with increasing directional concentration, while the flash flood centroids shifted westward, tracking major transport corridors.
The observed patterns suggest that human activities and climate change can provide a plausible explanation for the distribution and evolution of flash floods. The findings provide a scientific basis for flash-flood monitoring and early warning, major-engineering layout and policy formulation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2025- 01-13; 改回日期(Accepted date):2025-10-21
基金项目(Foundation item): 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0903)。[The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0903)]
作者简介(Biography): 张凯玥(2000-),女,山东泰安人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:山洪灾害及其风险。[ZHANG Kaiyue(2000-), female, born in Taian, Shandong Province, M.Sc. candidate, research on flash flood disaster and its risk] E-mail: zhangkaiyue3329@igsnrr.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-10-20