[1]张世哲,李秀珍*,李泉林,等.基于TRIGRS模型校准区域滑坡岩土体物理力学参数[J].山地学报,2025,(6):929-942.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000941]
 ZHANG Shizhe,LI Xiuzhen*,LI Quanlin,et al.Calibration of Regional Landslide Geotechnical Parameters Based on TRIGRS Model[J].Mountain Research,2025,(6):929-942.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000941]
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基于TRIGRS模型校准区域滑坡岩土体物理力学参数()

《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2025年第6期
页码:
929-942
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2026-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Calibration of Regional Landslide Geotechnical Parameters Based on TRIGRS Model
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2025)6-929-14
作者:
张世哲12李秀珍2*李泉林12赵晨澄12
(1.中国科学院大学,北京 100049; 2.中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610213)
Author(s):
ZHANG Shizhe12 LI Xiuzhen2* LI Quanlin12 ZHAO Chencheng12
(1. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 2. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610213, China)
关键词:
TRIGRS模型 降雨滑坡 参数校准 分区模拟 敏感性分析
Keywords:
TRIGRS rainfall-induced landslide parameter calibration partition simulation sensitivity analysis
分类号:
X43
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000941
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
岩土参数的不确定性及空间异质性是物理力学模型在区域滑坡评价中面临的瓶颈。本研究以黄河上游龙羊峡—积石峡段为研究区,在系统调查滑坡成灾背景与历史灾例的基础上,耦合瞬态降雨入渗模块的TRIGRS模型,选取内聚力c与内摩擦角φ为待校准关键参数,并以地下水位动态响应作为降雨过程约束。基于Python平台,利用历史滑坡空间分布,分别实施全域自动校准与按岩组分区的自动校准,进而在50年一遇降雨情景下模拟斜坡稳定性时变过程。结果表明:校准后的TRIGRS模型能合理再现滑坡动态演化,且分区校准性能(AUC值=0.71,召回率55%,准确率73%)显著优于全域校准(AUC值=0.68,召回率53%,准确率71%)。本研究为数据稀缺地区物理力学模型岩土参数的客观、高效确定提供了新范式,对提升区域降雨滑坡危险性评价精度具有实践价值。
Abstract:
Uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity of geotechnical parameters remain a bottleneck for physics-based models in regional landslide assessment, which requires a technical breakthrough.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2025- 04-23; 改回日期(Accepted date):2025-10-15
基金项目(Foundation item): 国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3004401-3); 国家自然科学基金(4177021463)。[National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3004401-3); National Natural Science Foundation of China(4177021463)]
作者简介(Biography): 张世哲(2003-),男,安徽六安人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:地质灾害评价及预警。[ZHANG Shizhe(2003-), male, born in Lu'an, Anhui Province, M.Sc. candidate, research on evaluation and early warning of geological hazards] E-mail: zhangshizhe@imde.ac.cn
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 李秀珍(1975-),女,博士,研究员,主要研究方向:地质灾害评价及预测。[LI Xiuzhen(1975-), female, Ph.D., professor, specialized in evaluation and prediction of geological hazards] E-mail: lxzljt@imde.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-12-20